International tourism continued to grow in early 2026, but in a far less favorable environment.
According to the latest data released by UN Tourism, international tourist arrivals rose 2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. In total, about 307 million tourists traveled abroad between January and March, 6 million more than a year earlier.
That growth, however, remains below the organization’s initial forecast, which had projected an annual increase of between 3% and 4% in 2026. After a strong start to the year in January and February, with cumulative growth of 2.5%, March slowed sharply to just 0.4%, as disruptions linked to the crisis in the Middle East took their toll.
Middle East conflict weighs on global tourism flows
UN Tourism estimates that the conflict in the Middle East could reduce growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points compared with its initial forecast, depending on the duration and scale of the crisis.
Air travel disruptions are not limited to trips to or from the region. Flight diversions, cancellations, reduced airline capacity, rising oil prices and pressure on jet fuel supplies are also pushing fares higher in other regions.
The situation could also change traveler behavior. As travel becomes more expensive and uncertainty persists over air connections, some demand may shift toward destinations closer to home, while also weighing on overall travel demand.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the conflict “is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself,” with effects on inflation, transportation and accommodation. She also noted that, despite this backdrop, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026.
Europe and Africa post the strongest regional performances
Detailed regional results are included in the latest edition of the World Tourism Barometer published by UN Tourism. The report points to contrasting trends across regions, with solid growth in Europe and Africa, more moderate gains in Asia-Pacific and the Americas, and a sharp decline in the Middle East.
Europe, the world’s leading tourism destination, welcomed more than 130 million international tourists in the first quarter of 2026, up 4%. The increase builds on the strong momentum recorded in 2025.
Southern and Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe each posted 4% growth, while Central and Eastern Europe continued to recover, with arrivals up 6%.
Africa also recorded a 4% increase over the first three months of the year. North Africa saw a strong acceleration in March, with growth of 18%, while arrivals in Sub-Saharan Africa also rose 4% over the quarter.
Asia-Pacific recorded 3% growth, with uneven performances across subregions. Oceania grew by 9% and Northeast Asia by 5%, but South Asia fell sharply in March due to disruptions affecting Middle East air hubs.
In the Americas, international arrivals rose 2%. Central America stood out with 18% growth, while South America posted a slight decline of 1%.
The Middle East, by contrast, recorded a 14% drop in international arrivals in the first quarter of 2026. The decline comes after a very strong post-pandemic recovery, with arrivals in the region in 2025 standing 40% above 2019 levels.
Cautious optimism for the summer season
For the May-August 2026 period, which covers the peak summer season in the Northern Hemisphere, UN Tourism points to cautious optimism.
The organization’s confidence index, based on responses from 300 tourism professionals, stands at 105 for the period, down from 117 for January-April. A score of 100 indicates that performance is expected to remain unchanged.
Nearly 39% of experts surveyed expect results to be better or much better than last year, while 28% expect a similar performance. Around 31%, however, expect tourism performance to be worse or much worse.
The main concerns remain the conflict in the Middle East, high transportation and accommodation costs, and broader economic uncertainty. According to UN Tourism’s expert survey, 64% of respondents believe the Middle East crisis is having a negative impact on tourism demand in their destination.
In this context, travelers are expected to continue looking for value for money and may favor destinations closer to home. At the same time, major international events could support demand in some regions, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be held in June and July in Canada, the United States and Mexico.
Air travel data confirm the March slowdown
Industry data confirm the impact of air travel disruptions. According to IATA, international air traffic rose 4% in the first quarter of 2026, but declined slightly in March, mainly because of a sharp contraction in traffic among Middle Eastern carriers.
International airline capacity increased 2% over the quarter, but fell 6% in March, again largely due to the decline recorded in the Middle East.
In the accommodation sector, the global occupancy rate reached 64% in March 2026, unchanged from March 2025. The Middle East, however, saw a sharp drop, with occupancy falling from 75% in January to 48% in March.
The beginning of the year therefore confirms the strength of international tourism demand, but also its growing sensitivity to geopolitical tensions, travel costs and economic uncertainty. In the coming months, the growth of global tourism is likely to depend both on travelers’ continued appetite for international trips and on how the crisis in the Middle East evolves, particularly its impact on air travel.
